The failed coup in Turkey is a serious setback for the country itself, but also for its partners in the West. The repercussions will have a negative impact on Turkey's risk rating and affect its economic ties, writes Dieter Ruloff in an exclusive essay for finews.first.


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A military coup, putsch or coup d'état is a not uncommon form of regime change in the fragile and partly young states in Africa, Latin America as well as South and East Asia and symptomatic for countries with unstable political institutions.

In a coup d'état, usually the armed forces or a part of them assume power from a mostly civilian government by use of force. In the weak countries of Africa, where the central government often is in control of a part of the territory only, there have been occasional attempts by warlords and their armed militias to take power by force.

In this decade alone, the world has already witnessed 28 coups or coup attempts, with 17 in sub-Saharan Africa, 6 in the Middle East, 3 in Asia and 1 in Latin America (see list of country in footnote).

«The institutions of government in Turkey were considered as reasonably resilient.»

Add to that the putsch that only just failed in Turkey. It was shocking event because of several reasons:

First, Turkey belongs to the European system of states as a candidate to join the European Union, a region that counts as one of the world's politically most stable; a coup d'état was least to be expected in that region.

Second, the institutions of government in Turkey were considered as reasonably resilient and democracy as solid, despite the power hunger of the current president. The time of the military coups in Turkey (1960 and 1980) was way back. The last meddling by the military in political affairs dates back to 1997 and led to the departure of President Erbakan – it may perhaps count as a threat to assume power and was intended as a warning against the growing influence of islamist circles.

Third, the putsch attempt put the president of the country and his conservative-islamic forces in a position to weaken their political opponents by a purge in the name of democracy and to move along the reconstruction of the country in the direction of an authoritarian-presidential system. That way, the attempted coup has weakened democracy in Turkey twice over.

«Coup and putsch attempts are symptoms of instability of state institutions.»

This obviously has prompted rumors that the putsch had basically been requested for by the president himself. However, there is no evidence available for this theory. It will be equally difficult to quickly proof whether the president provoked the rather amateurish attempt with an impending purge of the military, administration and justice system.

Coups and putsch attempts are in any case symptoms of instability of state institutions and Turkey now belongs mostly visibly to the class of countries where the possibility of such political changes has to be taken into account. This forcibly affects the country risk rating for Turkey and will have a negative impact on any type of business with the country.

The world, and primarily Europeans, can't be equal to these changes of affairs. Turkey, with a population of almost 80 million, is a large country and has hitherto been a quickly growing, important emerging market. Turkey remains an important trading partner of the EU, whose economic well-being is important for Europe, even if a membership of the EU, taking the domestic development of the country into account, has become unrealistic for the foreseeable future.

«Time will tell whether the fragile trade-off between the EU and Turkey will stand the test of time.»

Due to its membership in NATO and its position between Europe and the middle-eastern arch of crisis, Turkey also remains an important partner of Europe and the West as a whole, even if an increasingly difficult one because of the domestic, political development.

The acid test will come more quickly than Europe will like in the form of the migration policy. Time will tell whether the fragile trade-off between the EU and Turkey on the return of Syrian refugees will stand the test of time.

«Putsch» incidentally is the only word from the German idiom spoken in Zurich that made its way into the international language of politics. It was used in German media in their reporting of the coup d'état in Zurich of September 6, 1839, when conservative, god-fearing militias from the countryside attempted to bring down the liberal government of city and canton of Zurich.


*List of 28 coups and coup attempts: Benin 2013, Burkina Faso 2015, Burundi 2015, DRC 2011, Ivory Coast 2012, Gambia 2014, Guinea-Bissau 2010, 2011, 2012, Comoros 2013, Lesotho 2014, Madagaskar 2010, Malawi 2012, Mali 2012, Niger 2010, 2011, Sudan 2012.
Egypt 2011 und 2013, Chad 2013, Yemen 2014/15, Libya twice in 2013.
Bangladesh 2011, Papua New Guinea 2011/12, Thailand 2014.
Ecuador 2010.


Dieter Ruloff is professor emeritus of International Relations at the University of Zurich. In 1971 he took a Master of Arts in History and Political Science in Konstanz, followed by a PhD at the University of Zurich in 1974. Six years later, he finished his postdoctoral thesis at the Department of Philosophy at the University of Zurich. In 1987 he was appointed professor in Zurich.

Ruloff was a member of the senior management at Swiss bank UBS from 1990 through 1993 and in charge of the unit assessing the country risks. In 1993 he returned to the University of Zurich as professor for International Relations. He also assumed the lead at the Swiss Institute of International Studies (until 2008). Ruloff is a founding member of the Center for Comparative and International Studies at the ETH Zurich and University of Zurich and acted as director of the Department of Political Science at the University of Zurich (until 2012).


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