Against this background most wealth managers expect a stable, positive or even very positive business development in the coming 12 months. Around a third oft he respondents plan to hire extra staff.
The optimistic mood is also reflected in their assessment of the Swiss and U.S. equity markets. Some 45 percent of respondents forecast rising prices on the Swiss Market Index, whereas three months only 39 percent took this view (see graphic). For the S&P 500, some 42 percent expect price gains, compared with 38 percent at the end of March.
By contrast, forecasts for European stocks, or EuroStoxx50, are more cautious. Only 38 percent expect rising values, compared with 44 percent three months ago.
Time for Active Management
«Global share prices are no longer cheap, and thus react to bad news – particularly from politicians. The economic dynamic however is intact and there are enough companies with growth prospects and attractive valuations. In my opinion the time has come for active management – with a clear preference for indexing», said Juerg Brupbacher of JBV Asset Management.
Swiss independent wealth managers expect the euro to weaken further against the Swiss franc, and that the dolalr will keep gaining versus the franc, although only moderately.
Generous Cash Quote
The index shows the wealth managers have allocated their assets for the coming three months as follows: 44.3 percent in shares, 34.3 percent in bonds, 12.9 percent in liquidity, 5.0 percent in alternative investments and 4.4 percent in gold and other precious metals (see graphic).
«I favor a generous cash quote, to provide more flexibility and room to maneuver during market upheavals. As Charles Darwin once said: It isn’t the strongest who survives, or the most intelligent, rather those who are able to adjust best to changes», said Anna Fabbri from Aquila Associates Family Office.
Geographically, most respondents invest in Switzerland, followed by Europe, the U.S. and Asia (excluding Japan). Along with corporate bonds, most respondents prefer government bonds from emerging-market countries, followed by high yield bonds.
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