6. Management Clear-Out?
Sergio Ermotti and Chairman Axel Weber enjoy a banking bromance: the two want to stay in their jobs, together, until 2022. A seasoned former investment banker, Ermotti knows the surest way to kickstart the share price is a management clear-out. He holds the shorter straw of the “Webermotti” duo if shareholders clamor for change.
Likelihood: probable, especially if Ermotti cannot excite investors for UBS’ strategy, and the bank missteps in a French criminal probe
7. «Superbank»
Switzerland’s banking industry needs it: a shared platform for services standard to every bank, such as procedures for opening an account, formatting account statements, or even back-office handling of trades. As both the Swiss market leader, UBS is the natural project lead – but also stands the least to gain from a giant, multi-year «superbank».
Likelihood: zero
8. Autonomy for Asia
Asia is a growth market for UBS, and arguably so its most important. A more autonomous role for the local unit would improve efficiency and boost cooperation across the business. This in turn would benefit a demanding clientele. It would make a takeover easier to accomplish and engender a dynamic it seems to lack.
The step would go along with cutting Ermotti’s influence and hence is slightly improbable.
