The Swiss central bank governors won't yield to mounting criticism about negative interest rates. On the contrary, with downside risks mounting, the bank won’t be rushed into a tightening of monetary policy.

Since September, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) last published a monetary policy review, the franc has depreciated slightly against major foreign currencies. And yet the bank will stick to its policy of cheap money that is aimed at keeping the franc from appreciating, it said at a media conference in Bern on Thursday.

A Clear Enough Mandate

Thomas Jordan, the chairman of the governing board of the bank, parried a flurry of questions about when the bank finally would tighten the purse strings again. He insisted that the bank simply did its job, which was maintaining price stability while taking into account the economic development of the country.

«If we were to narrow the interest rate difference to foreign central banks now, it would have major repercussions on the foreign currency situation,» said Jordan. «The situation is more fragile than it was three or six months ago.»

Price Stability Maintained

The inflationary outlook for the Swiss economy remains benign and the bank doesn’t expect price stability to come under pressure anytime soon. Hence, the governors look much more closely at the valuation of the franc and the economic performance of Switzerland.

Switzerland’s rate of growth likely will slow from about 2.5 percent in 2018 to about 1.5 percent in 2019. An open economy such as Switzerland’s is heavily dependent on the dynamic of the economy abroad, which also is predicted to slow down.

A strong Swiss franc is a problem for the country’s manufacturing industry, because the domestic market is small and the export business crucial for its success. The SNB says the franc is «still highly valued». And at the same time, there are a number of major risks that have a significant potential to damage the Swiss economy.

Brexit Chaos and Italian Exuberance

The chaotic decision-making process of the British government in respect to Brexit is one of the major concerns, while Italy’s proposal for a widening of the budget deficit is another – keeping in mind that the European Union is by far Switzerland’s largest trading partner. Add to that the trend to protectionist policies which also has the potential to slow down economic activities across the globe.

«Given the economic and politicial uncertainties, there is also the risk of major and sudden movements in the exchange rate, which would significantly alter monetary conditions,» Jordan said.

Real Estate Watch

The central bank also is keeping a close eye on the real estate and mortgage market. The Swiss banking regulator Finma has decided to undertake a stress test with major mortgage lenders, while the SNB is looking into the question of countercyclical capital buffers that domestic banks use to secure their mortgages.

The biggest worry for the bank however remains residential investment properties. The central bank says that the brisk construction activities had boosted availability of rented apartments to a degree that there seems now to exist an oversupply in some areas of the country. This in turn is leading to a downward pressure on revenue from rents and may cause a fall in prices of such properties.

The finance ministry currently is looking at measures targeted at this specific part of the real estate market, said Fritz Zurbruegg, one of the three central bank directors.

New Target Rate for Monetary Policy

Apart from activities on the financial markets, the bank also is working hard to prepare the industry for the change of target rate. The U.K. Financial Conduct Authority will stop providing the Libor, the current target rate, beyond 2021. The SNB together with private market players has founded a working group that is developing measures to ensure a seamless transition from the Libor to the new benchmark, the Saron (the Swiss Average Rate Overnight).

One of the main questions that needs to be answered is how an overnight rate can replace a longer-term rate. The working group is recommending using an average of realized Saron values for the relevant interest period (for instance the last three months).

Andrea Maechler, one of three members of the governing board, reminded all participants in the financial market to develop a thorough understanding of the issues at stake and to get themselves ready for the change.