If finance was roiled this year by the coronavirus crisis, 2021 could be just as tumultuous – if finews.com's absurdly unconventional predictions have anything to do with it.
1. Doppelganger for UBS CEO Rumbled
The Swiss bank deploys a decoy for Ralph Hamers, Chairman Axel Weber admits at an impromptu press conference after initially denying rumors. UBS had wanted to ease the burden on the new CEO, who faces a potential criminal probe over money laundering allegations in his native Holland.
«The double was only meant for representative purposes, like the traditional January meeting with the Swiss government,» Weber said. Finma had vetted the doppelganger as «fit and proper». The decoy's cover was blown when he was found wandering aimlessly through the halls of Credit Suisse's headquarters – he had been looking for Hamers, but on the wrong side of Paradeplatz.
2. Switzerland Blacklisted By FATF
After the alpine nation was deemed a currency manipulator by the U.S. in 2020, the FATF dealt the next blow: Switzerland is blacklisted by the supranational body due to countless cases of money laundering and terror financing involving offshore Swiss bank accounts.
It may maintain an independent legal system and a battle-tested supervisor, the FATF note, «but Switzerland needs to do more». It is the third country after North Korea and Iran to be blacklisted by the FATF.
3. Ringier Wants Banking License
The media group submits an application to Finma to be licensed as a Swiss bank. CEO Marc Walder says that Ringier has long led technological developments and pioneered digital ecosystems. Subsidiaries like Financescout24 illustrate that Ringier can successfully broker financial services, he said.
«A banking license is the next logical step for us,» Ringier board member Lukas Gaehwiler said. «Thanks to our cooperation with Palantir, we're one of the leading data analytics firms in Switzerland, and using artificial intelligence to shape targeted content in all of our publications,» Walder said. Ringier now wants to apply the same methods to a potential banking clientele.
4. EFG International Takes Over Julius Baer
No one saw it coming: EFG International is making a play for its considerably larger rival Julius Baer in a bid to enter the premier league of private banking. EFG Chairman Peter Fanconi said: «Julius Baer didn't want us. So now we're doing it the other way around.»
International wealth management is about one thing alone: «Scale, scale, and scale.» Fanconi said he wants to continue to preside the combined «EFG Baer» entity.
5. Swiss Bankers Stage Walk-Out
A shock for docile Switzerland: bank employees stage a general strike after most major Swiss financial institutions require a coronavirus vaccination before staff can physically return to work. An employee lobby argues that mandatory vaccination violates democratic principles. The general strike is called for May 1 – which in 2021 falls on a Saturday.
The lobby doesn't want to risk reprisal for its constituents. The organizers of an annual left-wing May 1 march respond immediately, saying they will absolutely not share a traditional protest day with bankers – «the handmaidens and profiteers of capitalism» – and move their event to May 2.
6. Secret Deal Between UBS and Credit Suisse
A merger of Switzerland's two largest banks is not entirely off the table: UBS and Credit Suisse left the door open after a series of informal talks foundered. UBS Chairman Axel Weber and his Credit Suisse counterpart Urs Rohner inked a covert pact in the waning days of their respective tenures: the agreement ensures each the right of first refusal on each other if a foreign bank makes a grab for either bank.
The pact is a bid to protect the interests of Switzerland's financial center and to cement UBS' and Credit Suisse's first and second place in their home market.
7. ZKB CEO Martin Scholl's Bombshell
The long-standing CEO of Zurich's cantonal bank, ZKB, lays the groundwork for a new era in Swiss banking: ZKB will merge with Postfinance and Raiffeisen, and will subsequently go public. Scholl hammers out the deal with the respective chairs of Raiffeisen and Postfinance, Guy Lachappelle and Rolf Watter, during a frantic weekend of negotiations at his home in a suburb of Zurich.
ZKB, Raiffeisen, and Postfinance view their combination as a third force in Swiss banking – after champions UBS and Credit Suisse. «Together, we will definitely achieve that,» Scholl says. Lachappelle is slated to take over as CEO of the combined bank; the Raiffeisen overseer has already clinched approval from his more than 200 cooperative members to convert into a limited liability company in order to merge. Scholl is appointed as chairman for life of the merged bank.
8. Swiss Bankers Association Rebrands
The Basel-based lobby unifying the country's banks changes its name from the SBA to something with a more international and contemporary touch: the Swiss Sustainable Banking Association, or SSBA.
Chairman Herbert Scheidt says the group needed a new unifier following the exit of Raiffeisen from the group in 2020. Adding the adjective to its name highlights Switzerland's bid to become a modern financial center with impact and sustainability at its core.
9. Partners Group and UBS Plan Skyscraper
A partnership between the private markets investor and the Swiss bank bears its first fruit: the two firms plan to build a skyscraper in Zurich with luxury apartments in a lakeside property lot vacated due to the pandemic. The financing will be structured as a so-called club deal and offered to ultra-wealthy private clients and family offices.
Rafael Vinoly, the Uruguayan star architect who built New York's 432 Park Avenue, is set to build the tower, set to be the highest in Europe. Insiders report that Partners Group Co-Founder Alfred Gantner tried unsuccessfully to clinch a penthouse apartment in the 426-meter high Vinoly tower in New York – he is likely to have more luck in Zurich.
10. Crypto Valley Uproar: Bitcoin Crashes to Zero
Sheer disbelief on crypto exchange Binance: bitcoin tanks from more than $25,000 to virtually zero in a matter of hours. The crash was sparked by a blog post written by Satoshi Nakamoto. The bitcoin developer goes public after ten years of anonymity and speculation over his identity, writing n a crypto forum that he created the cryptocurrency as part of a long-term experience on human behavior towards money, greed, and speculative investing.
The results are conclusive, he notes. «Bitcoin is not a fake. It's nothing. And I can prove it,» he writes. Crypto exchanges are gripped with panic as investors feverishly try to dump their bitcoins. Meanwhile, the price of gold surges to nearly $3,900 per ounce.
Later on the same say, the crypto forum issues a publisher's note saying that an unknown hacker had briefly misappropriated a dormant account held by Satoshi Nakamoto – the blog post was fake. The price of bitcoin recovers as quickly as it tanked.
- The predictions are – obviously – entirely tongue in cheek.
