In the takeover battle for Commerzbank, Unicredit is stepping up the pace. Group CEO Andrea Orcel wants to convene an extraordinary general meeting once the remaining regulatory approvals have been obtained. At that meeting, the entire shareholder side of the supervisory board is to be reappointed – all ten representatives, including supervisory board chairman Jens Weidmann, according to reports from the Financial Times and Handelsblatt, among others.

In the base scenario, Unicredit could take control of Germany’s second-largest listed bank by the end of February 2027. In the most favourable case, this could happen as early as January. Until now, the talk had been more of the second quarter of 2027. Unicredit now holds 47.6 percent of Commerzbank.  

Orlopp also facing the exit

With a new supervisory board, the future of Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp is also likely sealed. Following the takeover, Orcel plans a far-reaching restructuring of the institution. At the beginning of September, Orlopp herself made it clear that she would draw consequences if no basis of trust and no agreement on strategy could be reached between the management board and the new major shareholder.

The strategic differences are significant. Unicredit wants to cut costs sharply and has indicated it could eliminate around 7,000 full-time positions in Germany alone. Commerzbank’s international business is also to be scaled back. Around €20 billion in corporate loans outside the core markets of Germany and Poland could be up for grabs.  

Berlin loses influence

The future role of the German state is also a special case. The federal government still holds just under 13 percent and is thus the second-largest shareholder. The German government had recently demanded that it continue to be represented on the supervisory board by two members.

Unicredit is apparently not willing to follow this demand. Berlin has, however, since softened its fundamental resistance to the takeover and is focusing more on conditions for a merger. These include preserving the headquarters in Frankfurt, the Mittelstand business and the interests of more than 40,000 employees. 

HVB merger as the next step

The takeover of control would likely be only the beginning. Orcel has indicated a multi-year restructuring of Commerzbank. It could then be merged with Unicredit’s German subsidiary Hypovereinsbank (HVB).