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Swiss Candidates

Swiss bankers in the mix are Simone Westerfeld, who stepped in when heavyweight Roger von Mentlen retired but has scant UBS experience. Others include Karin Oertli, a «Ms. Fixit»-type whom UBS has deployed variously in asset management, intermediaries, private banking, and – since last year – in retail and corporate banking.

Reto Wangler, who secured the key job of operating boss in a wealth management mega-merger last year, is also mentioned by UBS insiders. Both Oertli and Wangler are considered viable candidates for the Swiss job currently held by Lehmann, as is Winfried, or «Wiwi», Gutmannsbauer, a digital expert currently in Singapore at UBS' private bank.

Three-Way Race

UBS may also tip someone from its operations into top management: operations boss Chris Gelvin is well-respected, while information chief Mike Dargan, who joined from Standard Chartered three years ago, would be a logical tech choice.

One level higher, Khan’s appointment sets up an uneven, three-way race for Ermotti’s job, according to several bank insiders: the 43-year-old Khan, operating chief Sabine Keller-Busse, and Naratil are all considered viable candidates to succeed the CEO.

Ermotti’s inner circle is in the dark on when that might happen – before 2022 is as close as his associates get. The exit of asset management head Ulrich Koerner also provides an unexpected career window: the German-Swiss banker is Ermotti’s deputy, a job which will open up when Koerner leaves UBS by March.

Board to Follow?

To be sure, the stand-in job is largely to satisfy regulatory requirements, and isn’t indicative of succession – but nevertheless provides an opportunity to step up.

The rampancy of speculation of who might advance is Ermotti’s own doing. As the CEO eases into what are likely to be his final two years overseeing UBS, it has become apparent that he has fallen behind on diversifying top management. A similar gentle easing-out is expected on UBS’ board, where the average age under 62-year-old Axel Weber is 61.