Global corporate and investment banking (CIB) is likely to reach a new record in 2026. Including non-bank activities and private credit business, Boston Consulting Group (BCG) expects revenue of around $1.12 trillion, according to a statement. That represents growth of just over 7 per cent compared with the previous year. For traditional banks, the consultants estimated revenue of $907 billion, just over 6 per cent more than a year earlier. 

By 2030, the overall market is expected to grow to around $1.39 trillion. BCG has therefore revised its previous forecast of $1.31 trillion upwards. The figures come from the Corporate and Investment Banking Report 2026, published on Wednesday, titled “A Golden Window for Growth”. According to the report, revenues have risen steadily over the past six years. Since 2023, estimates have also included revenue from non-banks (see chart).

(Source: BCG)

Switzerland is not explicitly covered in the study, but it is clear that UBS, following the takeover of CS, plays a decisive role in the business here. In its Investment Bank, the major bank generated revenues of $11.8 billion in 2025, plus just over $8.2 billion from “Personal & Corporate Banking”. By comparison, Global Wealth Management generated revenues of just over $25 billion.

Revenue from hedge funds growing strongly

According to the authors, what stands out is not only the size of the CIB market, but above all the shift in the balance of power. The strongest growth is increasingly taking place outside the traditional corporate client business.

According to BCG, the most promising segments are business with hedge funds and financial investors, so-called financial sponsors. By 2030, the consultants expect average annual revenue growth of nine per cent and eight per cent, respectively, in these areas. By contrast, traditional business with corporate clients is likely to grow by only 2 per cent per year.

This development is changing the requirements for investment banks. Hedge funds need trading services, securities financing and prime brokerage, among other things. In addition to advising on acquisitions, financial sponsors are increasingly demanding loans, capital market products and payment services.

In BCG’s view, banks that serve such clients with only individual products fail to fully exploit their economic potential. Successful banks therefore need to focus more on comprehensive client relationships rather than separate business lines.

Non-banks are capturing ever larger market shares

The structural shift becomes even more apparent with the rise of non-banks. Their share of global CIB revenue is expected to reach around 19 per cent in 2026. In 2013, it was only about 4 per cent. By 2030, BCG expects a further increase to 23 per cent. That corresponds to a revenue volume of around $325 billion.

The trend is particularly advanced in trading. There, around 30 per cent of revenues already go to non-banks, more than twice as much as in 2020.

Winners include specialised trading firms, independent advisory firms and private credit providers. They compete with banks, but are also important clients for them at the same time. Banks are increasingly financing private credit funds instead of providing all loans themselves. According to BCG, financing for such funds and related structures alone grew by around 15 per cent annually between 2022 and 2025.

Asia growing faster than Europe

The balance is also shifting geographically. With a share of around 46 per cent of the global CIB market, North America is expected to maintain its dominant position through 2030. Annual growth is estimated at 4 per cent.

The Asia-Pacific region is expected to grow the fastest, at an average of 5 per cent. BCG sees additional business opportunities especially in India, Japan and Southeast Asia.

For Europe, the Middle East and Africa combined, however, the consultants expect annual growth of only 3 per cent. Behind this average, though, there are significant differences: while the Middle East benefits from investment by sovereign wealth funds as well as business in the energy and defence sectors, growth in continental Europe remains comparatively weak.

In addition, US banks are increasingly pushing into the European market, intensifying competitive pressure there.

AI could free up 40 per cent of capacity

In addition to competition from non-banks, the industry faces a profound technological shift. BCG estimates that artificial intelligence (AI) could free up as much as 40 per cent of today’s staff capacity in the middle and back office by 2030. Standardised and recurring tasks, such as settlement, control and administration, would be particularly affected.

However, this figure does not mean that four out of ten jobs will disappear. Some of the capacity that becomes available is likely to be channelled into new tasks, such as client advice, monitoring automated processes or technological development.

Nevertheless, BCG expects a significant change in staff structure. Routine tasks are likely to decline, while sophisticated advice, complex transactions and oversight of AI systems gain importance.

The consultants also believe that comprehensive AI-driven changes to business models could reduce total operating costs by 10 to 20 per cent.

A gap is opening between top banks and laggards

The effects are also likely to show up in profitability. For leading institutions, BCG expects a cost-income ratio of around 53 per cent and a return on tangible equity of 21 per cent by 2030.

Weaker competitors, by contrast, could remain stuck at an expense-income ratio of 68 per cent and a return on equity of just 10 per cent. The gap would therefore be substantial, even though both groups are essentially active in the same growing market.

Their conclusion: the current record business gives banks the financial resources needed for restructuring. Those that instead use the strong earnings as a reason to stick with the existing business model could lose market share.