In July, when it released its half-year results, UBS itself issued a rather cautious outlook. Management pointed to the lingering conflict in the Middle East as well as volatile energy prices. At the same time, customer activity was said to be "healthy". According to the consensus compiled by UBS itself, analysts expect net profit to rise by 9.1 percent to $2.71 billion. Pre-tax profit is forecast to come in 24 percent higher at $3.52 billion. Revenue estimates point to an increase of 6.0 percent to $12.93 billion.

In Global Wealth Management, a clear increase is expected, both in recurring fees and in trading. The outlook for Personal & Corporate is somewhat more subdued.

Equity capital remains a central issue

In addition to the figures, equity capital is likely to once again play a central role at the media conference with UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti. The question is whether the National Council will take a different line from the Council of States. Its proposal to require foreign subsidiaries to be backed by 90 percent hard equity capital in the future was sharply criticized by UBS and described as "excessive".

The fact that, in the aftermath, several media reports once again floated the possibility of UBS relocating or merging with a major foreign bank as potential options for the only remaining Swiss banking giant did not go down well either in politics or elsewhere in the public sphere. One could get the impression that UBS’s top management is somewhat overdoing its stark depictions of worst-case scenarios and trying to exert undue pressure.

Benefits of a departure are limited

Experts also consider the benefits of a relocation to be limited. ZKB analysts, for example, pointed out that a move would take several years before delivering the desired results. In addition, the economic benefit of shifting to a country with less stringent capital rules would not be immediately apparent because of the planned seven-year transition period.

The merger scenario also carries risks. A combination of two global banks would be extremely complex and costly. That would mean shareholders’ patience would be tested for several more years. Integration, restructuring, and the elimination of redundancies would take time and would be a difficult undertaking.

Share price decline due to uncertainty

At the half-year results presentation, it was already said that the integration of the acquired Credit Suisse was in the home stretch. The ongoing job cuts likely continued. The persistent political debate over equity capital requirements is also seen as one of the main reasons for the decline in UBS shares over recent months. From a high of around CHF 45 per share in early September, the stock has fallen to around CHF 38.50 currently. That is a decline of about 14 percent.