In autumn 2025, the outlook for private markets appeared largely cloudless—apart from a somewhat clogged exit pipeline, meaning that private equity exits through initial public offerings (IPOs) remained challenging. Whenever the sector made headlines, it was usually because of its impressive growth rates.

As is well known, that picture has changed considerably in the meantime.

Clouds Gather Over Private Markets

First, several companies that had financed themselves through private credit were no longer able to service their loans this spring, prompting J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon to issue his now infamous «cockroach warning.»

Second, concerns emerged that many business models in the technology sector—which is heavily represented in private markets—could become obsolete as a result of artificial intelligence (AI).

Third, some retail investors discovered the hard way that the liquidity of evergreen funds is not unlimited, as fund managers imposed gates to halt outflows. This also had repercussions in Switzerland, particularly on the share price of Partners Group.

Two Years on the Ground in Zurich

Harbourvest, one of the oldest private markets investment firms with headquarters in Boston, opened a distribution office in Zurich two years ago. In October 2025, finews last met with Daniel Signer, Head of Institutional Investor Relations Switzerland and, since early 2026, Country Head Switzerland, leading a team of six. Before joining Harbourvest in 2024, he worked in Vontobel's multi-asset division and at pension fund consultant Complementa.

finews wanted to know how he had experienced the recent market turbulence from the client perspective. Also present at the Zurich meeting was Alexander Eschmann, Head of Private Wealth Switzerland. Before joining HarbourVest, he spent twelve years at Credit Suisse and later UBS, specialising in private markets.

«We are very satisfied with the past few months. Our offering fits the needs of Swiss clients very well, and we have been able to win several new mandates,» says Signer.

Although Harbourvest has been serving Swiss clients since the 1990s, having a local office staffed by professionals who understand both the Swiss financial market and its regulatory framework has significantly strengthened the firm's market position.

«The scene has evolved into an ecosystem centered around Zurich, Geneva, and Lugano, but it has remained manageable.»

The competition has taken notice as well.

«In recent years, a number of competitors have also opened offices in Switzerland, not least because they appreciate the market's stability and depth,» adds Eschmann.

«The industry has developed into an ecosystem centred around Zurich, Geneva and Lugano, yet it remains relatively compact, with just over two dozen firms.»

Clients Remain Committed

How have the recent headlines affected business?

Around 90 percent of Harbourvest's business still comes from private equity, the asset class the firm has specialised in for four decades. Infrastructure and private credit make up only a small share of its activities, meaning the firm has had little direct exposure to the problems affecting private credit.

Clients, however, have many questions. Signer, who advises pension funds, insurers and other institutional investors, notes dryly:

«People talk about it a great deal, but I don't know a single client who has stopped investing because of the headlines.»

Eschmann, who covers multi-family offices, banks and wealth managers, adds: «We explain how we have built and diversified our portfolios.»

As a long-standing private equity specialist, Harbourvest has both the data and expertise to conduct detailed analyses.

Its software companies, for example, were carefully assessed for AI-related risks, which tend to be greater the more easily a business model can be replaced.

According to Eschmann: «The software companies in one of our flagship products achieved stronger average revenue growth last year than companies in other sectors. That suggests our selection process has not been too bad.»

Will 2026 Be a Record Year for Private Equity Investments? (Graphic: Harbourvest)

No Geographic or Sector Bets

Signer stresses that Harbourvest does not make geographic or sector-specific bets.

«Around 60 percent of our investments are in the United States and 30 percent in Europe, which broadly reflects the global market.»

The products sold to institutional investors and wealth management clients contain essentially the same underlying investments, although they differ in structure. Institutional investors mainly invest through closed-end funds, while wealth management clients typically use evergreen funds.

Closed-End Funds versus Evergreen Funds

«The fact that our evergreen funds have an above-average proportion of long-term institutional anchor investors gives these vehicles additional stability during volatile periods and builds confidence,» says Eschmann.

Closed-end funds require investors to commit a fixed amount of capital, which the fund manager draws down over time, typically over a ten-year period. Distributions can begin after around five years, although the timing is determined by the manager.

The advantage of this structure is that short-term market volatility plays only a limited role. Investors commit capital for the long term—usually around 90 percent of the committed capital is eventually drawn—somewhat comparable to bonds, although naturally with significantly higher risk.

Evergreen funds, by contrast, allow investors to enter and exit at any time, provided the manager has not imposed gating. They therefore offer a degree of liquidity and regular valuations. Unlike closed-end funds, investors also do not have to manage capital calls and distributions, making them operationally more convenient for private wealth clients.

Will IPOs make the private equity exit pipeline more fluid again? (Graphic: Harbourvest)

IPO Market Reopens

The private equity industry has also seen some positive developments in recent months.

The previously clogged exit pipeline has become more fluid, particularly in the United States, where both the number of IPOs and the associated issuance volumes have increased significantly.

«This is clearly positive because IPOs are an important exit channel. If this trend continues through the end of the year, 2026 will be an outstanding year for IPOs,» says Signer.

He rejects the notion that a stronger IPO market could reduce the attractiveness of private equity.

In most IPOs, only a small portion of shares is floated. The universe of private companies still vastly exceeds that of listed companies worldwide, meaning that anyone seeking exposure to the real economy cannot avoid private equity.

Better Diversification

«Investors in public equity markets also face considerable concentration risk,» warns Signer.

In Switzerland, indices are dominated by Roche, Nestlé and Novartis, while in the United States a handful of technology stocks—the so-called Magnificent Seven—drive much of the market.

«Our portfolios are much more broadly diversified.»

Why the Secondary Market Has Boomed

As a multi-strategy private markets manager, Harbourvest divides its activities roughly equally between primary investments, co-investments and secondaries.

In the primary market, Harbourvest selects and invests in private equity funds directly. In co-investments, another—usually large—private equity firm leads the transaction, while Harbourvest typically participates as a co-investment partner.

In the secondary market, investors buy and sell interests in closed-end funds, often because sellers wish to rebalance their portfolios.

Secondary market transaction volumes have expanded dramatically. In 2016, they amounted to USD 37 billion. By 2025, they had reached USD 240 billion. Another record year is expected in 2026, and the improving IPO market has not yet slowed this momentum. The bottleneck in IPO exits has been one of the key reasons behind the rapid growth of the secondary market in recent years.

Signer concludes by once again highlighting the diversification benefits of private markets.

«Our secondary portfolio consists of between 3'000 and 4'000 companies.»