Travis Spence, the ETF market has been growing at a rapid pace for years. Is this a trend without an endpoint?

The momentum remains remarkably strong. Both 2023 and 2024 were record years for the industry, with growth rates of around 30 percent. And in 2026, we are currently running even ahead of those levels — both in terms of net inflows as well as new issuances and trading volumes. 

That demonstrates that ETFs are now firmly embedded in investor preferences.

At the same time, the product landscape continues to broaden. The active segment in particular has clearly become the growth engine of the ETF industry. 

Why specifically active ETFs?

Active ETFs have been growing at roughly twice the pace of the overall ETF market over the past five years. While the segment initially started from a relatively small base, it continues to gain scale, inflows, and market share. 

«Europe is still in the early stages of this development.»

What matters most is that investors want to see track records and scale. Many active ETFs were only launched in recent years and are now beginning to reach meaningful size.

What is particularly interesting is the development in the United States: there are now more active ETFs than passive ETFs.

That is remarkable considering the ETF industry was shaped almost exclusively by passive strategies for decades. 

Is Europe simply lagging behind this trend?

Europe is following the same trajectory, albeit with a time lag. The market here was initially built around passive ETFs. Now we are seeing an increasing number of providers launching active ETFs — including traditional passive managers that are expanding aggressively into the segment. 

Over the next five years, we expect the overall ETF market to double, while active ETF volumes could quadruple.

Europe is still in the early stages of this development. The true inflection point we witnessed in the United States will likely only arrive here in several years’ time. 

Which segments are driving this growth?

Active equity strategies are gaining the strongest traction. At the same time, we are seeing a rapidly expanding opportunity set in fixed-income ETFs. Many bond allocations in portfolios are still held through traditional vehicles today. ETFs are likely to play a much larger role in the future — particularly active fixed-income ETFs. 

In addition, we are seeing increasing demand for derivatives-based strategies, such as income or hedged-equity ETFs, which have already been highly successful in the United States and are now gradually entering Europe. That creates new opportunities for portfolio construction. 

The ETF market is dominated by a handful of large players. Do smaller firms still have a chance?

Yes — but they need strong active capabilities.

Particularly in Europe, the market is highly institutionalized and professionalized. Institutional investors and large due-diligence teams want to understand exactly how a strategy works, how the portfolio is managed, and who is behind it. 

That means a compelling investment process, experience, and direct access to portfolio managers are essential. In the United States, there are more distribution channels that allow smaller firms to scale quickly. In Europe, that is considerably more difficult. 

Travis Spence. (Image: provided)

Is that also a regulatory issue?

Partly, but not primarily. Investor structures and buying behavior are much more important. At the same time, regulatory developments are creating additional tailwinds for ETFs. 

In the United Kingdom, for example, there is a strong shift toward greater private retirement provision and individual responsibility in wealth accumulation. In Germany, new retirement models with fee caps are also supporting ETF-based solutions.

Digital platforms are another major driver. They make investing easier, more accessible, and more attractive — particularly for younger investors. 

Will ETFs eventually displace traditional mutual funds?

We are already seeing stronger convergence between the two worlds. Many strategies can now be implemented both in a traditional mutual fund structure and in an ETF format. As a result, we are observing a gradual migration, particularly in active strategies. 

In Europe, however, the process is likely to evolve more slowly than in the United States because regulation, distribution, and market structures function differently. Nevertheless, convergence will continue to increase. 

How important is the Swiss market for J.P. Morgan Asset Management?

Switzerland may not be a large market, but it is an exceptionally sophisticated and highly developed one. For us, it is one of the most important markets in Europe. Swiss investors are extremely sophisticated, particularly when it comes to portfolio construction. 

«Active asset allocation combined with active building blocks creates clear value over the cycle.»

That is why we believe the focus will increasingly shift toward how ETFs are used within broader portfolio frameworks — rather than as standalone investments. 

What does that mean in practice?

Today, many retail investors still allocate primarily to individual global equity ETFs. Over time, we expect the market to evolve more toward diversified multi-asset solutions. 

Our view is that active asset allocation combined with active building blocks creates clear value over the cycle. That is why earlier this year we launched a new family of multi-asset ETFs ranging from defensive to aggressive profiles. Investors effectively receive a fully constructed portfolio through a single ETF ticker.

That combines diversification, active management, and ease of access. 

What role will artificial intelligence play going forward?

AI will not replace the industry, but it will significantly enhance it. The current focus is on making processes more efficient and precise. The quality of the underlying data is critical. “Garbage in, garbage out” applies to AI more than ever. 

For example, we use AI to analyze 40 years of research and portfolio data and compare current decisions with historical market situations. That can materially improve investment decision-making. 

How will AI change the investor experience?

The greatest potential lies in better portfolio construction and personalization. In the future, AI will be able to analyze portfolios, identify weaknesses, and recommend appropriate ETF building blocks across asset classes. 

As a result, investors will no longer only see individual investments, but rather their entire financial picture — including retirement assets, broader investments, and risk profiles.

I believe that is where the future lies: moving away from single-product investing toward personalized holistic solutions. 

Will the financial industry become more individualized as a result?

Absolutely. Personalization will become one of the defining trends of the coming years. AI and digital tools will enable portfolios to be tailored much more precisely to individual needs and objectives. 

Ultimately, that should create better investment experiences — and likely better outcomes for investors as well. 

The interview was conducted on the sidelines of the Media Summit 2026 hosted by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in London.