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The Swiss bank’s shareholders expect new targets from CEO Tidjane Thiam this week. More importantly, it is also his «show me the money» moment. finews.com explains why.

Investors are parsing three basic scenarios ahead of Tidjane Thiam’s third investor day in London on Thursday. The first is that the Credit Suisse boss will confirm 2018 targets laid out when he came into the job over two years ago, and illustrate the bank’s progress toward them.

The more likely is that he will confirm Credit Suisse’s general strategic direction, but have to walk back certain targets, as he already had to one year ago. The prime suspect is the bank’s Swiss unit under Thomas Gottstein: it will almost certainly not reach a 2.3 billion Swiss franc pretax profit by next year.

The third option is the most exciting, and the most far-fetched: Thiam could present new financial targets as well as outline Credit Suisse’s strategy beyond 2018.

Cost Cuts as Quick Fix

A former McKinsey star, Thiam conceded earlier this month that Credit Suisse is «broadly following the same strategy, going after the same opportunities,» as larger rival UBS. The admission begs the question what Credit Suisse can do differently, better, distinctively – not just follow UBS.

A look at post-2018 Credit Suisse? Another big major cost-cutting program may be on the cards: the bank still isn’t lean and efficient enough after cutting its overhead to 17 billion francs. Big banks slash spending – this is the ubiquitous answer from the banking industry to economic and structural challenges.

When he walked back some profit targets last year, Thiam also hiked his target for spending cuts, which Credit Suisse is set to hit imminently. Cost cuts would be grist for the mill of RBR Capital Advisors, a Zurich-based hedge fund which is agitating for big changes at the bank.

 A Smaller UBS?

With a paltry 0.2 percent stake set against heavyweight shareholders including a major U.S. fund house and Qatar, RBR head Rudolf Bohli has little chance of persevering with a split-up. Another billion-franc cost-cutting program would likely give Credit Suisse shares a fillip and allow Bohli to notch a quick win.

A strategy reversal such as the break-up Bohli is calling for could attract new, major investors. The «Financial Times» reported that Saudi Arabia is intrigued and may invest, perhaps even displacing archenemy Qatar, which is feeling the squeeze economically.

Credit Suisse bankers insist that the bank will use the investor day to present a battery of numbers underpinning the final third of Thiam’s strategy.