Concluding that the world as we know it has been turned upside down in the space of just six months would be ignoring the fact that these cyclical flare-ups are symptoms of deeper structural changes that have been at play for several years, Nadège Lesueur-Pène writes in a piece for finews.first.


This article has been published on finews.first, a forum for authors specializing in economic and financial topics.


Will the first half of 2022 be remembered as the turning point? It certainly looks that way, judging by the shift in the prevailing mood since last winter. The world was looking forward to putting the pandemic behind it thanks to the vaccines, and with the economy rebounding sharply, there was little doubt that things would return to normal. Equity markets were reaching new highs, seemingly oblivious to the post-Covid supply chain disruptions and the mounting tension on prices.

Within a few months, though, a series of crises dented that confidence. Stoked by the war in Ukraine, inflation has surged to new records and the threat of recession looms over Europe. Increased geopolitical tension is compounding existing conflicts which, along with extreme climate events, are causing food and fertilizer costs to skyrocket. This is raising fears of a devastating food crisis in the more vulnerable developing countries, simultaneously as the energy crisis rages on.

«Stock and bond markets have been contending with violent corrections since the start of the year»

Meanwhile, renewed complacency towards populism and nationalism is jeopardizing the delicate balance of democracy in many countries. As for the pandemic, it’s picking up again as subvariants spread and fresh concern emerges around China’s growth. Faced with all these uncertainties, stock and bond markets have been contending with violent corrections since the start of the year.

But concluding that the world as we know it has been turned upside down in the space of just six months would be ignoring the fact that these cyclical flare-ups are symptoms of deeper structural changes that have been at play for several years. Environmental commitments, emission-reduction policies, the technological revolution and the movement towards a more inclusive growth model are all issues that our economies have been grappling with as cracks have started to show in the development model that has served us for thirty years.

«This search for solutions is highly likely to descend into a disorderly de-globalization»

The age of globalization – triggered by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the subsequent end of the Cold War, and then amplified by China stepping onto the international relations stage by joining the WTO at the end of 2001 – has generated phenomenal growth, largely driven by the financial system. But the broad-based drop in poverty has come, in many cases, with a rise in inequality. At the same time, climate change and biodiversity loss have brought to light the pressing need to better address the effects of our activities on the environment and rethink our growth model.

This urgent requirement to simultaneously deal with cyclical upheavals and tackle structural reforms while advancing in a fog of uncertainty is unprecedented in human history. But while we may recognize our model’s limitations, doubts are multiplying as to the international system’s ability to establish new common rules, as evidenced by the difficulties in implementing the Paris Accord and by the deadlock between the members of the UN’s Security Council.

With world governance weakened, this search for solutions is highly likely to descend into a disorderly de-globalization. A trend towards decoupling strategies and state intervention to wind back an overdependency causing vulnerability is spreading to more and more ‘sensitive’ sectors. While some of these approaches may be justified, the risk is fragmentation of this connected world, which could undermine its capacity to mount a united front in tackling issues that call for cooperation in order to make it more resilient.

«Switzerland's financial sector has proven its solidity»

As a hub of international relations with Geneva a center for global governance, Switzerland has the means to withstand shocks. This privileged position is largely responsible for its stock market’s strong performance compared to other markets in recent months, and for the strength of the franc. Moreover, since 2011 the country has consistently been at the top of WIPO’s Global Innovation Index, a testament to its success in maximizing human capital in relation to the use of new technology.

Switzerland is also a leader in data science through its Zurich and Lausanne federal polytechnic universities and is a step ahead in asset tokenization. Its strong currency and qualified workforce have stimulated research and innovation in its national corporations. Not to mention the fact that Switzerland, being a historical trading center, is in a unique position to analyze and better anticipate developments in the commodity and shipping markets. And of course, its financial sector has proven its solidity and has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to grow in spite of tighter regulations, digital transformations and the health crisis.

«Banks have faced increased pressure on their margins but they are prepared for adversity»

Swiss banks are indeed determined to contribute to reducing economies’ carbon intensity, as shown by the boom in responsible investment confirmed by Swiss Sustainable Finance (SSF) in its latest report. They have faced increased pressure on their margins but they are prepared for adversity and have the resources to handle it.

Blending tradition and modernity, Switzerland, and in particular its banking sector, will undoubtedly be ready for the challenges thrown up by the transition to a new world order, able to rely on the stability of its institutions and society, on its strong environmental and humanistic values, and on its trailblazing spirit.


Nadège Lesueur-Pène joined Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) in 2015 managing the Emerging Markets & Eastern Europe wealth management teams, before becoming Head of Wealth Management – Developing Markets and Europe, which encompasses notably Geneva, Portugal, Monaco, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Latin America. She is based in Geneva and is a member of the Executive Committee.

She started her career at Paribas in Moscow as Deputy Head of the representative office. After five years with HSBC in Paris in international financing, she rejoined the BNP Paribas group, this time in Switzerland, first in structured finance, and subsequently in wealth management. She holds a bachelor’s and a master’s degree in Russian philology from Langues’O, a double master’s in international management from ESCP–EAP and studied Sovietology at Sciences Po Paris.


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